CCAR and Forecasting Analyst

The incumbent will manage the consumer organization forecast planning function and provisioning, that includes building and maintain the appropriate forecasting models for CCAR, stress test and any other correlated initiative. The incumbent is expected to liaise and manage interactions with product managers, country finance and regional/global functions. He / she ensure forecast are accurate and escalate any issue in advance.

Job Background
The Forecast and CCAR Analyst will work as key part of Consumer Credit Risk Team ensuring timely and accurate forecast of Cost of Credit. He/she should ensure that stress testing is implemented across the Middle East cluster for all products in line with best practice for the purpose of risk management, compliance with the regulatory framework and meeting enterprise wide stress testing needs. The Forecasting and CCAR analyst should support the ownership and accountability on some of the key elements of the stress testing framework, including, consolidating results, delivering analysis to Senior Management and ensuring that stress testing is meeting the demands of the regulators.

Key Responsibilities

• Development and implementation of regional stress scenarios, methodologies and frameworks in line with global direction / guidelines and regional / local regulatory requirements. This includes working with the businesses / functions to model, estimate, challenge and aggregate impacts and create an enterprise wide stress testing solution.

• CCAR - perform CCAR forecasting; develop, enhance and maintain all CCAR related documentation; attest quarterly CCAR submission. Provide guidance, consultancy and oversight to MENAT countries on CCAR area. Ensure all MRM requests are completed within designated timelines.
• Forecasting of CECL ACL reserves on a quarterly basis inline with regional guidance and applicable model usages.
• Regulator communications and requests on an adhoc basis to be completed within crunched deadlines
• Detailed understanding of the requirements and stages of model development and approval; transition smaller portfolios for UAE and Bahrain to MDDT.
• Knowledge of annual validation for all models.
• Extend existing models for use in processes like ICAAP, Plan, MYF

• Develop, manage, and maintain accurate portfolio forecasting including weekly, Flash, MYF, and Plan reporting.
• Manage monthly outlook and explain variances vs Plan.
• Maintain strong governance and control oversight of IFRS 9 project
• Oversight and calculation of IFRS 9 provisioning requirement, enforcement of governance standards and methodology as prescribed by the regulators.
• Promptly highlight variances in portfolio and product trends towards target and prior months which underline risks or opportunities.
• Prepare early warning tracking and also highlight changes in portfolio through the portfolio quality review decks. Ensure accurate and timely submission of PSEW (Portfolio Stress Early Warning) and tracking of key stress indicators. Support RMCO and CRM in delivery of Scenario Plan.

• Ensure Risk generated data reconcile with Financial Control figure. Ensure monthly reconciliation process is in place.
• Reconciliation for data uploaded in Pearl for Plan and MYF.
• Reconciliation and attestation for LLR balances
• Create and maintain Stress test application and documentation
• Work cross-functionally with key business partners to ensure the most accurate forecasting and prediction of portfolio trends in light of change in underlining market dynamics
• Work with the Cluster Risk Manager in preparing presentation and/or meetings. Prepare monthly deck for the Cluster Risk Committee or any other committee (in example but not limited to, business management meetings).
• Ensure full compliance to GCCFRP, local legislation and identify potential gaps, in order to obtain necessary approvals or to close the gap

• Provide Risk input to Regional and UAE ICAAP in line with Regulatory / Group guidelines.

Desired Skills and Experience

• 3-5 years prior experience within a forecasting or stress test function preferably in a global bank
• Strong interpersonal, analytical, organizational, project management, problem-solving, presentation and verbal and written communication skills. Great emphasis on big picture, but with the ability to dig into data and perform root cause analysis. Understand statistical and economic relevance of results
• Detailed understanding of the Product Programs and the dynamics of the underlying risk/reward and profit models. Experience with multiple markets, different products/portfolios
• Knowledge of operational and other cross-departmental processes.
• Good understanding of regulatory developments and supervisory practices, experience in dealing with regulators on technical as well as strategic business and capital matters Be part of the team that is the main point of contact in Consumer Credit Risk for stress testing questions coming from local regions, other teams and regulators

Qualifications

• Strong proven analytical skills in developing forecasting models, implementation of IFRS9 and CECL.
• Basic knowledge of key financial indicators and capital ratios.
• Excellent oral and written communication skills; multiple language proficiency preferred but not required.
• Qualification: Masters in Statistics, Economics or mathematical discipline.
• Programming: SAS, VB, SQL, MS Access, General Query Tools
• Good understanding of banking products, macroeconomics and financial markets

Skills

• Ability to priorities effectively and meet tight deadlines when required
• Ability to articulate complex ideas in a clear manner
• Must demonstrate the ability to communicate with a various range of stakeholders
• Good Interpersonal skills and ability to work with cross functional teams in order to develop, update, and communicate the most effective and efficient credit policy. Build relationships up and across the organization to leverage the "Citi knowledge" advantage. The power of one.
• Analytical thinking.
• Ability to efficiently communicate with business partners;
• Ability to work unsupervised.
• High problem solving orientation
• High written and verbal communication (English).
• Outstanding level of prioritizing skills and time management.

Competencies

• Master risk management and forecasting techniques.
• Understand cost/benefit analysis and its value in the decision making. Process. Strong working knowledge of a P&L and an understanding of the levers impacting operational risk and recovery. Ability to create "what if" scenarios.
• Be a data-oriented thinker that uses the available information to data mine and find opportunities.
• Being proactive in identifying adverse trends / emerging risks and convincing in delivering correction action plan recommendations.
• Awareness of Citi people processes, policies and relevant laws.

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Job Family Group:
Risk Management -------------------------------------------------
Job Family:
Credit & Portfolio Risk Management ------------------------------------------------------
Time Type:
Full time ------------------------------------------------------
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